Batten Briefing: Decarbonizing the Automobile Industry

The University of Virginia Darden School of Business Batten Institute for Entrepreneurship and Innovation has published its latest Batten Briefing — “Path to 2060: Decarbonizing the Automobile Industry.” The briefing distills the key insights and takeaways from Professor Mike Lenox‘s broader research on pathways to propel the automobile industry away from fossil fuels and toward zero-carbon emission technologies like electric vehicles.

Overall, we believe that rapid maturity and decreasing costs of electric vehicle technologies as well as a strong global demand, particularly in Asia, will drive the transition to electric vehicles.

How long will it take? Even if all vehicles sold were electric starting today, it would take at least 20 years to completely decarbonize the automobile industry as the stock of more than 1 billion existing vehicles turns over slowly.

Continued investment, both public and private, in R&D and charging infrastructure, will help get us there more quickly. And for fuel cell vehicles, this investment and government incentives will be critical for the technology to become cost-competitive in this market.

We are optimistic that meeting the 2060 target is possible, but will be challenging. Make no mistake—the automobile industry will be electrified. It’s just a matter of when and which technology will be in the driver’s seat when it happens.

To view the Batten Briefing as well at the full “Decarbonizing the Automobile Industry” report and a webinar and podcast on the research, visit Darden’s Business Innovation and Climate Change Initiative research webpage.

“Decarbonizing the Automobile Industry” is the first of a three-part “Path to 2060” series, in which Lenox will examine possibilities for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in various sectors of the global economy.