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All Rights Reserved.",{"enabled":28,"complete":28,"capacity":233,"label":44,"stale":35,"items":234},4,[235,241,245,249],{"contentId":236,"contentType":237,"label":238,"href":239,"source":240},"3cfnF0kekl1bxtXRgMRn1F","article","Darden Student Housing","\u002Farticles\u002Finside-the-thinking-behind-uva-dardens-new-student-housing","algolia",{"contentId":242,"contentType":237,"label":243,"href":244,"source":240},"61xGycZknWivEK2Vffla2V","AI in Healthcare","\u002Farticles\u002Fhow-ai-is-transforming-healthcare",{"contentId":246,"contentType":237,"label":247,"href":248,"source":240},"2GBmzAadCKzwTWJggqmArB","Christopher Fuller Named CMCO","\u002Farticles\u002Fchristopher-fuller-named-chief-marketing-and-communications-officer-at-uva-darden",{"contentId":250,"contentType":237,"label":251,"href":252,"source":240},"23Pz69HrBYAP3sxJeeaNpU","Hiba Anwar’s Fellowship","\u002Farticles\u002Fhiba-anwar-freeland-franklin-fellowship",{"path":254,"template":255,"content":256,"context":486},"\u002Farticles\u002Fstrategy-scenario-planning","articlePage",{"id":257,"title":258,"slug":259,"path":254,"modifiedAt":260,"summary":261,"publishedDate":266,"topics":269,"authors":274,"insightsFrom":280,"topper":306,"bodyBlocks":320,"outro":430,"seo":479},"5l05m13zDGrW3x47bOxhxQ","Future-Proof Your Strategy: Scenario Planning","strategy-scenario-planning","2026-09-09T16:37:32.095Z",{"plainText":262,"inlines":263},"Early in 2019, who knew that a novel coronavirus would shut down businesses, communities, industries and economies in just weeks? A good business strategist understands that the future unfolds in ways that are unforeseeable as frequently as they’re predictable. But there are analytical frameworks you can use to yield insights for your organization.",[264],{"type":265,"value":262},"text",{"display":267,"dateTime":268},"22 September 2022","2022-09-22",[270,272],{"id":271,"label":97,"href":98},"leadership-management",{"id":273,"label":117,"href":118},"strategy",[275],{"id":276,"name":277,"href":278,"profileType":279},"4J33ZdelFG7VT6Zud0pas1","Aine Doris","\u002Fpeople\u002Faine-doris","person",[281,294],{"id":282,"name":283,"title":284,"href":285,"profileType":286,"image":287,"bio":293},"65pq5zvU1DUek7WGbxwIqX","Jared D. Harris","Samuel L. Slover Research Chair and Associate Professor of Business Administration","\u002Fexpert\u002Fdirectory\u002Fjared-d-harris","faculty",{"src":288,"alt":289,"aspectRatio":180,"width":181,"height":181,"bynderDat":290},"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.darden.virginia.edu\u002Ftransform\u002Fsquare-medium\u002F40a2559c-2cb6-4810-803b-6dc7beaa6b1a\u002FJared-Harris-Preferred","Darden Reunion",{"baseUrl":18,"assetId":291,"name":292,"preset":185},"40a2559c-2cb6-4810-803b-6dc7beaa6b1a","Jared-Harris-Preferred","Harris is an expert in ethics and strategic management, with a focus on corporate governance, business ethics and interorganizational trust. He has written extensively on executive compensation and other governance-related topics.",{"id":295,"name":296,"title":297,"href":298,"profileType":286,"image":299,"bio":305},"3VtjDSjk1GabizZHp8q6aH","Michael Lenox","University Professor and the Tayloe Murphy Professor of Business Administration","\u002Fexpert\u002Fdirectory\u002Fmichael-lenox",{"src":300,"alt":301,"aspectRatio":180,"width":181,"height":181,"bynderDat":302},"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.darden.virginia.edu\u002Ftransform\u002Fsquare-medium\u002F47357988-211d-479d-878d-b23fe0544f32\u002FMikeLenox_preferred_041618","preferred vertical portrait",{"baseUrl":18,"assetId":303,"name":304,"preset":185},"47357988-211d-479d-878d-b23fe0544f32","MikeLenox_preferred_041618","Lenox is an expert in technology strategy and policy, studying how innovation helps businesses succeed. His work explores firm strategies and nontraditional public policies that have the potential to drive green innovation and entrepreneurship.",{"id":307,"variant":308,"title":258,"subheadline":33,"topic":309,"image":310},"5l05m13zDGrW3x47bOxhxQ-topper","wide",{"id":271,"label":97,"href":98},{"src":311,"alt":312,"aspectRatio":313,"width":314,"height":315,"bynderDat":316},"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.darden.virginia.edu\u002Ftransform\u002Fwidescreen-large\u002F086a9d7b-e560-4142-bd56-fb8ac1b6aa13\u002FFuture-Proof-Your-Strategy-Scenario-Planning","Hand drawn checklist with three completed tasks. Red check marks in black squares and colorful, watercolor strokes imply progress and achievement.","16 \u002F 9",2560,1440,{"baseUrl":18,"assetId":317,"name":318,"preset":319},"086a9d7b-e560-4142-bd56-fb8ac1b6aa13","Future-Proof-Your-Strategy-Scenario-Planning","widescreen-large",[321],{"id":322,"contentType":323,"region":324,"render":325},"5l05m13zDGrW3x47bOxhxQ-body-0","richText","body",{"component":326,"props":327},"RichTextBlock",{"content":328},{"blocks":329},[330,359,364,376,384,389,413,418,425],{"type":331,"content":332},"paragraph",[333,337,342,345,349,352,356],{"type":265,"value":334,"marks":335},"In this series, we detail four foundational analytical tools to help any organization future-proof its strategy. This installment follows Tool No. 1: ",[336],"italic",{"type":338,"value":339,"href":340,"external":28,"marks":341},"link","Competitor Analysis","https:\u002F\u002Fideas.darden.virginia.edu\u002Fstrategy\u002Fcompetitor-analysis",[336],{"type":265,"value":343,"marks":344},", Tool No. 2: ",[336],{"type":338,"value":346,"href":347,"external":28,"marks":348},"Environmental Analysis","https:\u002F\u002Fideas.darden.virginia.edu\u002Fstrategy-environmental-analysis",[336],{"type":265,"value":350,"marks":351}," and Tool No. 3: ",[336],{"type":338,"value":353,"href":354,"external":28,"marks":355},"Capabilities Analysis","https:\u002F\u002Fideas.darden.virginia.edu\u002Fstrategy-capabilities-analysis",[336],{"type":265,"value":357,"marks":358},". ",[336],{"type":331,"content":360},[361],{"type":265,"value":362,"marks":363},"Who could have known in 2019 that a novel coronavirus would shut down businesses, communities, industries and economies all over the globe within a matter of weeks? Or that the shift to digitally powered online working, learning and communicating would be executed virtually overnight as a result? ",[],{"type":331,"content":365},[366,369,373],{"type":265,"value":367,"marks":368},"A good strategist understands that the future unfolds in ways that are unforeseeable as frequently as they’re predictable. ",[],{"type":265,"value":370,"marks":371},"The Scenario Planning Tool",[372],"bold",{"type":265,"value":374,"marks":375}," has the benefit of forcing all decision-makers to set aside their assumptions about the future and to embrace contingency planning for multiple possibilities, for exogenous shocks and for crises, considering the risks and opportunities they may entail. Decisions influenced by multiple sources of uncertainty or in which a high-consequence, low-probability event might significantly influence the outcome are well suited for scenario planning.",[],{"type":377,"id":378,"level":379,"content":380},"heading","scenario-planning",2,[381],{"type":265,"value":382,"marks":383},"SCENARIO PLANNING",[],{"type":331,"content":385},[386],{"type":265,"value":387,"marks":388},"This step-by-step framework empowers you to:",[],{"type":390,"items":391},"unorderedList",[392,399,406],{"blocks":393},[394],{"type":331,"content":395},[396],{"type":265,"value":397,"marks":398},"Mitigate groupthink around a single possible future",[],{"blocks":400},[401],{"type":331,"content":402},[403],{"type":265,"value":404,"marks":405},"Facilitate contingency planning for multiple possible future contexts",[],{"blocks":407},[408],{"type":331,"content":409},[410],{"type":265,"value":411,"marks":412},"Develop a strategy that is as robust as it is resilient to change and future shocks",[],{"type":331,"content":414},[415],{"type":265,"value":416,"marks":417},"How do we do it? ",[372],{"type":377,"id":419,"level":420,"content":421},"step-1-gather-information",3,[422],{"type":265,"value":423,"marks":424},"Step 1: Gather information. ",[],{"type":331,"content":426},[427],{"type":265,"value":428,"marks":429},"Start by pulling together a diverse team of stakeholders with whom to brainstorm the key issues or the strategic decisions that you and your organization will need to make in an uncertain environment. Ask yourselves this: What are our chief concerns with respect to the future? Maybe it’s about how customers will purchase your goods or how their expectations or habits might change. Perhaps you’re concerned about how technology will affect your manufacturing capabilities or what changing environmental regulation could mean for your business. Whatever it is, set a time horizon for how these concerns might pan out. And set it far enough in the future that uncertainty is there, but not so far that you become prone to unrealistic or wishful thinking. Whether it’s 18 months or five years, remember to factor in economic and industry cycles — things like the approvals processes for the pharmaceutical sector, say.",[],{"tags":431,"pressContact":437,"bios":467},{"topics":432,"storyType":435},[433,434],{"id":271,"label":97,"href":98},{"id":273,"label":117,"href":118},{"label":436,"href":126},"Article",{"id":438,"heading":439,"body":440,"image":450,"action":458,"contactLabel":460,"contactId":461,"contactName":462,"contactTitle":463,"contactEmail":464},"1JXqEbL3azVV5umnM8ChNj","About UVA Darden School of Business",{"blocks":441},[442,446],{"type":331,"content":443},[444],{"type":265,"value":445},"The University of Virginia Darden School of Business prepares responsible global leaders through unparalleled transformational learning experiences.",{"type":331,"content":447},[448],{"type":265,"value":449},"Darden's graduate degree programs and Executive Education & Lifelong Learning programs offered by the Darden School Foundation set the stage for a lifetime of career advancement and impact.",{"src":451,"alt":452,"aspectRatio":453,"width":454,"height":455,"bynderDat":456},"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.darden.virginia.edu\u002Ftransform\u002Fc88de114-fc91-4aa8-b801-2e987f7a4a22\u002FDarden_Spring_Environmental_Spring_25_Saunders_Hall_20","Darden_Spring_Environmental_Spring_25_Saunders_Hall_20","8354 \u002F 5569",8354,5569,{"baseUrl":18,"assetId":457,"name":452},"c88de114-fc91-4aa8-b801-2e987f7a4a22",{"label":459,"href":26,"external":35,"openInNewWindow":35},"Learn More","Press Contact","2KGmVfjHQigGuWjTI4aCKw","Lauren Foster","Senor Director of Communications",{"label":465,"href":466},"fosterl@darden.virginia.edu","mailto:fosterl@darden.virginia.edu",[468,474],{"id":282,"name":283,"title":284,"body":293,"image":469,"action":471},{"src":288,"alt":289,"aspectRatio":180,"width":181,"height":181,"bynderDat":470},{"baseUrl":18,"assetId":291,"name":292,"preset":185},{"label":472,"href":285,"accessibleLabel":473},"Read more","Read more about Jared D. Harris",{"id":295,"name":296,"title":297,"body":305,"image":475,"action":477},{"src":300,"alt":301,"aspectRatio":180,"width":181,"height":181,"bynderDat":476},{"baseUrl":18,"assetId":303,"name":304,"preset":185},{"label":472,"href":298,"accessibleLabel":478},"Read more about Michael Lenox",{"title":258,"description":262,"image":480},{"src":481,"alt":312,"aspectRatio":482,"width":483,"height":484,"bynderDat":485},"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.darden.virginia.edu\u002Ftransform\u002Fwidescreen-large\u002F086a9d7b-e560-4142-bd56-fb8ac1b6aa13\u002FFuture-Proof-Your-Strategy-Scenario-Planning?io=transform%3Afill%2Cwidth%3A1200%2Cheight%3A630&quality=75","1200 \u002F 630",1200,630,{"baseUrl":18,"assetId":317,"name":318,"preset":319},{"canonicalPath":254,"identity":487},{"id":257,"contentType":237,"title":258,"path":254,"publishedAt":268,"modifiedAt":260,"topics":488,"authors":491,"eligibility":493},[489,490],{"id":271,"label":97},{"id":273,"label":117},[492],{"id":276,"label":277},{"searchEngines":28,"followLinks":28,"internalSearch":28}]