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All Rights Reserved.",{"enabled":28,"complete":28,"capacity":233,"label":44,"stale":35,"items":234},4,[235,241,245,249],{"contentId":236,"contentType":237,"label":238,"href":239,"source":240},"3IO50DiUrQm8ML20joajCL","article","Defense Innovation at Darden","\u002Farticles\u002Fthe-business-of-national-defense-is-changing-so-is-the-classroom","algolia",{"contentId":242,"contentType":237,"label":243,"href":244,"source":240},"4mDfyVZuEtdDW9g96wu1rU","On Academic Freedom","\u002Farticles\u002Fon-academic-freedom",{"contentId":246,"contentType":237,"label":247,"href":248,"source":240},"2GBmzAadCKzwTWJggqmArB","Christopher Fuller Named CMCO","\u002Farticles\u002Fchristopher-fuller-named-chief-marketing-and-communications-officer-at-uva-darden",{"contentId":250,"contentType":237,"label":251,"href":252,"source":240},"5QtyLWjq3hauPenG5pGTED","Alumni Career Advice","\u002Farticles\u002Fin-uva-dardens-classroom-building-six-alumni-put-career-advice-on-the-wall",{"path":254,"template":255,"content":256,"context":532},"\u002Farticles\u002Fpredict-open-ended-decisions","articlePage",{"id":257,"title":258,"slug":259,"path":254,"modifiedAt":260,"summary":261,"publishedDate":266,"topics":269,"authors":274,"insightsFrom":280,"topper":293,"bodyBlocks":307,"outro":481,"seo":525},"3OkSvzsexrhxAM4mNzPgCD","Too Many Choices: A Model to Predict Open-Ended Consumer Decisions","predict-open-ended-decisions","2026-10-01T16:13:32.774Z",{"plainText":262,"inlines":263},"New research uses neuroscience to examine how humans make decisions and presents a framework — proven to have startling accuracy — to predict what choices we’ll make under what circumstances. Darden Professor Zhihao Zhang discusses the role memory plays, as well as implications of his groundbreaking research for brand awareness and beyond.",[264],{"type":265,"value":262},"text",{"display":267,"dateTime":268},"22 August 2023","2023-08-22",[270,272],{"id":271,"label":73,"href":74},"data-analytics",{"id":273,"label":104,"href":105},"marketing-sales",[275],{"id":276,"name":277,"href":278,"profileType":279},"08wH8y3h9s26aZvilU1J9","Seb Murray","\u002Fpeople\u002Fseb-murray","person",[281],{"id":282,"name":283,"title":284,"href":285,"profileType":286,"image":287,"bio":292},"3sdkIzzx1gXWX28usFFXkr","Zhihao Zhang","Assistant Professor of Business Administration","\u002Fexpert\u002Fdirectory\u002Fzhihao-zhang","faculty",{"src":288,"alt":283,"aspectRatio":180,"width":181,"height":181,"bynderDat":289},"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.darden.virginia.edu\u002Ftransform\u002Fsquare-medium\u002F9523c480-2a4f-4453-8d04-85c9d7c818c9\u002FZhihao-Zhang",{"baseUrl":18,"assetId":290,"name":291,"preset":185},"9523c480-2a4f-4453-8d04-85c9d7c818c9","Zhihao-Zhang","Zeng’s research draws from consumer behavior and cognitive neuroscience to understand consumer decision-making. He studies how neuroscience can inform real world problems at the intersection of marketing and law, such as copyright infringement.",{"id":294,"variant":295,"title":258,"subheadline":33,"topic":296,"image":297},"3OkSvzsexrhxAM4mNzPgCD-topper","wide",{"id":271,"label":73,"href":74},{"src":298,"alt":299,"aspectRatio":300,"width":301,"height":302,"bynderDat":303},"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.darden.virginia.edu\u002Ftransform\u002Fwidescreen-large\u002F6484fe60-c5ca-415c-91af-f4447d4df15a\u002FToo-Many-Choices-A-Model-to-Predict-Open-Ended-Consumer-Decisions","Graphic of to-go coffee cups.","16 \u002F 9",2560,1440,{"baseUrl":18,"assetId":304,"name":305,"preset":306},"6484fe60-c5ca-415c-91af-f4447d4df15a","Too-Many-Choices-A-Model-to-Predict-Open-Ended-Consumer-Decisions","widescreen-large",[308],{"id":309,"contentType":310,"region":311,"render":312},"3OkSvzsexrhxAM4mNzPgCD-body-0","richText","body",{"component":313,"props":314},"RichTextBlock",{"content":315},{"blocks":316},[317,327,332,340,360,367,387,392,402,418,424,435,448,454,459,466],{"type":318,"content":319},"paragraph",[320,323],{"type":265,"value":321,"marks":322},"Picture this: you’re about to go on your lunch break, hunger pangs nudging you toward a satisfying meal. But where to eat? The possibilities are myriad, a labyrinth of choices to navigate.",[],{"type":265,"value":324,"marks":325}," ",[326],"bold",{"type":318,"content":328},[329],{"type":265,"value":330,"marks":331},"Everyday life seldom serves up straightforward decisions. Unlike the neat meals displayed on a restaurant menu, the decisions we encounter are often far from well-defined. Instead, we are presented with open-ended scenarios, leaving us to generate potential options ourselves. This overlooked phase of decision-making — a subtle yet significant process — often holds the key to optimal outcomes. ",[],{"type":333,"id":334,"level":335,"content":336},"heading","the-importance-of-brainstorming-and-memory",2,[337],{"type":265,"value":338,"marks":339},"The Importance of Brainstorming and Memory",[],{"type":318,"content":341},[342,345,350,353,357],{"type":265,"value":343,"marks":344},"In “",[],{"type":346,"value":347,"href":348,"external":28,"marks":349},"link","Retrieval-Constrained Valuation: Toward Prediction of Open-Ended Decisions","https:\u002F\u002Fdoi.org\u002F10.1073\u002Fpnas.2022685118",[],{"type":265,"value":351,"marks":352},",” published in the journal ",[],{"type":265,"value":354,"marks":355},"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences",[356],"italic",{"type":265,"value":358,"marks":359}," (PNAS), researchers propose a novel lens through which to perceive decision-making.",[],{"type":318,"content":361},[362,365],{"type":265,"value":363,"marks":364},"The mere act of brainstorming a range of potential alternatives, they say, significantly influences the quality of our decisions.",[],{"type":265,"value":324,"marks":366},[326],{"type":318,"content":368},[369,372,374,377,379,382,384],{"type":265,"value":370,"marks":371},"After all, “If a promising option isn’t conceived, it can’t be chosen, no matter how much it might align with your preferences,”",[],{"type":265,"value":324,"marks":373},[326],{"type":265,"value":375,"marks":376},"said the lead author,",[],{"type":265,"value":324,"marks":378},[326],{"type":265,"value":380,"marks":381},"Darden Professor",[],{"type":265,"value":324,"marks":383},[326],{"type":265,"value":385,"marks":386},"Zhihao Zhang. ",[],{"type":318,"content":388},[389],{"type":265,"value":390,"marks":391},"Confronted with a blank slate, the likelihood is that you’ll gravitate toward a brand that rings a bell, a name etched into memory, even if lesser-known options could be equally (or more) satisfying but don’t come to mind.",[],{"type":318,"content":393},[394,397,399],{"type":265,"value":395,"marks":396},"The researchers observed patterns in people’s behaviors — and brains, via MRI scans — across various decisions, such as choosing a lunch spot.",[],{"type":265,"value":324,"marks":398},[326],{"type":265,"value":400,"marks":401},"They divided participants into two groups, one with a preset list of options, the other without.",[],{"type":318,"content":403},[404,407,409,412,415],{"type":265,"value":405,"marks":406},"“In the absence of a menu, participants frequently selected familiar joints like McDonald’s and Burger King — brands deeply ingrained in the minds of U.S. consumers,” said Zhang.",[],{"type":265,"value":324,"marks":408},[326],{"type":265,"value":410,"marks":411},"“Less recognizable but still well-liked brands, such as Chipotle, were chosen much less when participants were required to devise their own options.” This was because consumers were not as likely to recall these lesser-known lunch spots — ",[],{"type":265,"value":413,"marks":414},"even when they preferred those spots",[356],{"type":265,"value":416,"marks":417},". ",[],{"type":333,"id":419,"level":335,"content":420},"a-model-that-predicts",[421],{"type":265,"value":422,"marks":423},"A Model That Predicts ",[],{"type":318,"content":425},[426,429,432],{"type":265,"value":427,"marks":428},"The study led to far more than observations on culinary decisions when choices aren’t handed to people on a silver platter. The researchers developed a ",[],{"type":265,"value":430,"marks":431},"computational framework",[356],{"type":265,"value":433,"marks":434}," for predicting decisions with remarkable consistency. The prospect of a model that illuminates the cognitive processes that underlie the navigation of open-ended decisions — and can predict them — holds great implications for both academia and practice. ",[],{"type":318,"content":436},[437,440,443,446],{"type":265,"value":438,"marks":439},"Operating within a controlled laboratory setting, a test of this model achieved an accuracy rate of ",[],{"type":265,"value":441,"marks":442},"90 percent",[356],{"type":265,"value":444,"marks":445},", surpassing the researchers’ expectations and opening the door to a world of precise and predictive insights.",[],{"type":265,"value":324,"marks":447},[326],{"type":333,"id":449,"level":335,"content":450},"quantifying-the-value-of-brand-awareness",[451],{"type":265,"value":452,"marks":453},"Quantifying the Value of Brand Awareness",[],{"type":318,"content":455},[456],{"type":265,"value":457,"marks":458},"Of numerous implications of the model, one example from marketing: How can the value of brand awareness be evaluated — or even predicted (a far more difficult and valuable feat)?",[],{"type":318,"content":460},[461,464],{"type":265,"value":462,"marks":463},"“This is something that all marketers strive for,” Zhang said. He noted that the model enables a quantifiable measurement of the benefits reaped by prominent brands like McDonald’s, Nike and Amazon, simply for holding leadership positions within their respective markets.",[],{"type":265,"value":324,"marks":465},[326],{"type":318,"content":467},[468,471,473,476,478],{"type":265,"value":469,"marks":470},"Beyond this rich-get-richer or prominence-breeds-prominence angle, the study addresses a longstanding challenge: forecasting the impact of advertising campaigns before they unfold.",[],{"type":265,"value":324,"marks":472},[326],{"type":265,"value":474,"marks":475},"Historically, predicting campaign outcomes has been a formidable task laced with uncertainties.",[],{"type":265,"value":324,"marks":477},[326],{"type":265,"value":479,"marks":480},"How to predict success? “But our study takes the first step to giving a more precise answer to that question,” noted Zhang. It means marketers can go a step beyond ad testing to determine how much of an increase in brand awareness might proportionally increase sales.",[],{"tags":482,"pressContact":488,"bios":518},{"topics":483,"storyType":486},[484,485],{"id":271,"label":73,"href":74},{"id":273,"label":104,"href":105},{"label":487,"href":126},"Article",{"id":489,"heading":490,"body":491,"image":501,"action":509,"contactLabel":511,"contactId":512,"contactName":513,"contactTitle":514,"contactEmail":515},"1JXqEbL3azVV5umnM8ChNj","About UVA Darden School of Business",{"blocks":492},[493,497],{"type":318,"content":494},[495],{"type":265,"value":496},"The University of Virginia Darden School of Business prepares responsible global leaders through unparalleled transformational learning experiences.",{"type":318,"content":498},[499],{"type":265,"value":500},"Darden's graduate degree programs and Executive Education & Lifelong Learning programs offered by the Darden School Foundation set the stage for a lifetime of career advancement and impact.",{"src":502,"alt":503,"aspectRatio":504,"width":505,"height":506,"bynderDat":507},"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.darden.virginia.edu\u002Ftransform\u002Fc88de114-fc91-4aa8-b801-2e987f7a4a22\u002FDarden_Spring_Environmental_Spring_25_Saunders_Hall_20","Darden_Spring_Environmental_Spring_25_Saunders_Hall_20","8354 \u002F 5569",8354,5569,{"baseUrl":18,"assetId":508,"name":503},"c88de114-fc91-4aa8-b801-2e987f7a4a22",{"label":510,"href":26,"external":35,"openInNewWindow":35},"Learn More","Press Contact","2KGmVfjHQigGuWjTI4aCKw","Lauren Foster","Senor Director of Communications",{"label":516,"href":517},"fosterl@darden.virginia.edu","mailto:fosterl@darden.virginia.edu",[519],{"id":282,"name":283,"title":284,"body":292,"image":520,"action":522},{"src":288,"alt":283,"aspectRatio":180,"width":181,"height":181,"bynderDat":521},{"baseUrl":18,"assetId":290,"name":291,"preset":185},{"label":523,"href":285,"accessibleLabel":524},"Read more","Read more about Zhihao Zhang",{"title":258,"description":262,"image":526},{"src":527,"alt":299,"aspectRatio":528,"width":529,"height":530,"bynderDat":531},"https:\u002F\u002Fimages.darden.virginia.edu\u002Ftransform\u002Fwidescreen-large\u002F6484fe60-c5ca-415c-91af-f4447d4df15a\u002FToo-Many-Choices-A-Model-to-Predict-Open-Ended-Consumer-Decisions?io=transform%3Afill%2Cwidth%3A1200%2Cheight%3A630&quality=75","1200 \u002F 630",1200,630,{"baseUrl":18,"assetId":304,"name":305,"preset":306},{"canonicalPath":254,"identity":533},{"id":257,"contentType":237,"title":258,"path":254,"publishedAt":268,"modifiedAt":260,"topics":534,"authors":537,"eligibility":539},[535,536],{"id":271,"label":73},{"id":273,"label":104},[538],{"id":276,"label":277},{"searchEngines":28,"followLinks":28,"internalSearch":28}]